Another round of falling shocks! DMC fell to 19500! In the last week of July, can it hold the last round of lows? Trend analysis

At the end of July, the entire industry chain is still lacking in positives. Last week, the quotations of various monomer factories were "overcast and falling", and the DMC of individual monomer factories in Shandong fell below 20,000 again! It fell 700 per week. As of July 24, DMC's quotation was 19,500 yuan / ton, and other monomer plants fell to 20,500-21,000 yuan / ton. In terms of raw materials, silicon metal remained stable, but methyl chloride continued to rise, and the pressure on the transaction of monomer factories that purchased raw materials increased.

At present, the pre-orders of the single plant are coming to the end of delivery, some maintenance devices are gradually restarted, and the recovery of terminal demand is expected to be delayed again and again. The single plant has to see between cost and demand. This is a new round of stocking cycle. In order to win more orders, each individual factory will stage an overt and covert bidding. Starting from March this year, there will be a wave of profit promotions at the end of the month, and the low point will be refreshed again and again. In July In the last week of 2019, can silicone withstand the lows of the last round?

107 rubber market: The 107 rubber market fell slightly last week. As of July 22, the 107 rubber market price was 20,500-21,000 yuan / ton, down 2.81% for the week. Supply side: Local DMC fell below 20,000, and the cost-side support of 107 rubber weakened. The quotation of 107 rubber from the superimposed leading monomer factory is again upside down with DMC, which has a negative impact on other 107 rubber manufacturers negotiating orders. In terms of the operating rate of the industry, the load of individual factories has increased, the supply of conventional 107 rubber has increased, and other small and medium-sized 107 rubber enterprises have been under pressure again due to profits, and the load level has dropped. Must do!

From the perspective of demand, although infrastructure investment is steadily landing, the real estate industry is stagnant, and the recovery cycle will be quite long, and the superimposition of high temperature and off-season is more obvious. Therefore, silicone rubber companies lack confidence in the market outlook, and prices above 20,000 are difficult to achieve. Stimulate the downstream batch stocking, and the current supply is biased towards just need to maintain production. The contradiction between supply and demand of electronic potting glue is also prominent due to the decline in demand for consumer electronics terminals.

On the whole, it is difficult to drive the demand for 107 glue only by photovoltaic glue. At the end of the month, it is a stocking node for large silicone glue companies. In order to grasp a new round of orders, it is not ruled out that manufacturers are fighting against each other, and the transaction price of 107 glue continues to focus on downward.

Silicone oil market: The price of domestic methyl silicone oil was 24,500-25,500 yuan per ton last week, down 1.96% for the week. From the perspective of the supply side, some DMCs fell significantly, and the negative release was released, and the stability and shipment of silicone oil companies was blocked. In order to stimulate the transaction, there was a strong atmosphere of negotiation. Due to the high difficulty of silicone ether, the price of methyl silicone oil has been higher than that of vinyl silicone oil this year. Last week, the conventional vinyl silicone oil of leading monomer factories fell to 23,500 yuan/ton. In terms of foreign-funded silicone oil, it was greatly affected by the trend of the domestic market. The foreign brand silicone oil agents followed suit, and the conventional methyl silicone oil was adjusted to 27,000-27,500 yuan / ton, and there were still some profit margins in local transactions.

On the demand side, the profits of downstream industries such as daily chemicals and weaving are not good. Some silicone rubber factories have stocking plans at the end of the month, and they are also waiting to enter the market. In terms of export orders, inquiries have increased, and it will take time to implement purchases. Foreign trade companies also continue to wait and see based on the current falling environment, waiting for opportunities to wait for further declines before making arrangements.

On the whole, the decline in the cost side is obvious, and the demand side has few transactions. It is expected that the silicone oil will be adjusted weakly at the end of July, and the focus of transactions will be downward.

Cracking material market: Last week, the price of new materials was cut successively, and waste silica recyclers lowered their quotations to 8,000~8,500 yuan/ton. However, from the previous price of 19,000 yuan/ton, the raw edge of the product factory was basically about 6,000 yuan/ton. , the current price is so high, which is closely related to the reduction of orders from product factories, but it is also inseparable from the hype of waste silica recyclers. For cracking material enterprises, it has been suffering for more than half a year, and the loss of production reduction is the norm, and the next step is to boil it. over peers.

At present, the cracking material DMC is quoted at 18,000~19,000 yuan / ton (excluding tax), down by about 500 yuan / ton. Due to the high price of silicone ether, less silicone ether can be added to the cracked material to produce low-viscosity silicone oil. Therefore, the low-viscosity cracked material silicone oil has a little price advantage, and the current shipment is acceptable.