Seven in a row! Accidental support, panic stocking in the downstream, stimulates another round of silicone rises! Trend analysis

Last week, the price of silicone products rose across the board. The Shandong monomer factory has risen every day since July 3, and it will not stop on weekends. As of July 10, it has achieved 7 consecutive rises! The main monomer factory in Zhejiang has risen by 500 and 1000 yuan, and even after the sudden accident of the glyphosate plant in a monomer factory, it has risen overnight. The current DMC price is 21,000 yuan / ton, and the increase is 2,000 yuan / ton.

A new week has begun, and the rebound is still continuing. Although everyone is still worried about the recovery of terminal demand, the outbreak of emergencies has caused downstream companies to be controlled by panic even when they know that the supply of single plants is oversupplied. And resolutely joined the stocking. At present, some single factories are arranging orders until the end of the month, and this round of gains has been extended. In addition, a company in Zhejiang has been dismantled and stopped production, and it does not involve a single device. However, in the key link of the current increase, many accidents will be magnified, prompting the increase to fall, and it is likely to continue to increase this week. Will you chase the increase

107 rubber market: The market price of 107 rubber continued to rise steadily last week. The mainstream market quotation was 21,500 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 8.86%. From the perspective of the supply side, due to the continuous increase in the price of DMC and the sudden factors on Thursday, some areas were closed and restricted, and the cost-side support was good. As the low-priced inventories of downstream manufacturers are gradually consumed in June, there is no hope of short-term bearishness, and they can only stock up in a panic. 107 rubber enterprises have entered the golden period of order-taking in July, and some manufacturers have placed orders until the end of the year. Therefore, in the short term, in the pre-order Under the support of orders, the pressure on the supply side of 107 rubber is acceptable, and the trend is likely to be dominated by stable and rising.

From the demand side, the demand for construction rubber is still weak, and it is still waiting for the favorable policies to exert force. Last week, downstream enterprises were driven by panic to stock up in advance, and some distributors also purchased in appropriate amounts, resulting in a slight increase in market transactions. Some room temperature rubber manufacturers Shipments are good, but terminal purchasing enthusiasm is not high, so there is uncertainty in the continuous stocking capacity of the demand side.

On the whole, 107 glue is driven by the emotional side, and its continuity still needs the help of the terminal market. If local real estate policies are stimulated in August, the demand will gradually be realized. In addition, the installed capacity of photovoltaic glue this year has exceeded expectations. This is also good for the 107 rubber market, but the impact is weak. With a high probability, there is a consensus in the industry that supply exceeds demand this year, and low prices may be more able to stimulate speculative demand to enter the market.

Silicone oil market: The price of silicone oil increased by 2.02% last week. As of July 10, the silicone oil market price range is 25,000-26,000 yuan/ton. Supply side: DMC rises frequently, and the cost side brings support. In addition, the production reduction of the monomer factory is effective, the supply is controlled, and the procurement of silicone oil manufacturers is partially affected. Secondly, the orders received by silicone oil companies are slightly differentiated. Some silicone oil manufacturers that focus on large enterprises or have their own characteristics can obtain better orders in adversity, and some manufacturers have orders until the end of the month. In terms of foreign brand silicone oil: driven by the domestic rally, the confidence of agents to support prices has surged. At present, the quotation of foreign brand silicone oil is 27,000-28,000 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 2.8%.

On the demand side, the performance of domestic demand is relatively differentiated. Under the impact of the rising trend, the stocking volume of large downstream manufacturers has increased, while the orders of small and medium-sized manufacturers are not good. In order to avoid risks, the stocking volume has always been cautious. Some analysts believe that the transfer of domestic textile orders to Southeast Asia may accelerate in the second half of the year, and the window period for silicone oil companies that focus on domestic trade may be extended, while silicone oil companies with foreign trade business are relatively optimistic. From this point of view, it is also an important factor for the differentiation of silicone oil manufacturers since this year. At present, there are many inquiries about overseas orders, and it will take a while for the transaction to be finalized.

In the short term, the pressure on the domestic silicone oil inventory is not large, and the downstream will tend to maintain production after a moderate amount of stockpiling. In the follow-up trend, more attention should be paid to the export order of silicone oil.

Raw rubber market: The domestic raw rubber market rebounded strongly last week. As of the 10th, the mainstream price of raw rubber was 21,500 yuan / ton, up 5.43% for the week. Because the compounded rubber did not see the market outlook at the beginning of the month, it not only restrained the stocking, but also actively digested the inventory. Unexpectedly, on Thursday, with an emergency, the raw rubber factory was closed again, and it was pulled up again, and the mood of the compounding rubber enterprise was instantly driven. , and actively place orders for purchases. At present, the manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and they are actively pulling up. However, after the compounding plant has prepared inventory for about 15 days, the chasing mentality may weaken. In the short term, the supply pressure of raw rubber manufacturers is not large, but the power to continue to increase is limited.