Although the Spring Festival is approaching, new orders for disperse dyes have been reduced, but printing and dyeing companies and distributors are still busy rushing to major disperse dye manufacturers.
Most printing and dyeing companies have successively closed the Spring Festival holiday, and most disperse dye companies are still working overtime to produce and deliver goods. On February 1, 2021, the ex-factory price of disperse dyes rose again slightly. Taking disperse black ECT300% as an example, the ex-factory price of major brands including tax increased from 28 yuan/kg on January 18 to 32 yuan/kg, an increase of 7 %, the actual transaction price in the market will lag behind.
As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, why the ex-factory price of disperse dyes has been raised again? A brief analysis is as follows:
First, the demand for dyes has grown. Customs statistics show that in 2020, my country’s exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products amounted to US$153.839.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.2%. In 2020, my country's textile and apparel exports totaled US$291.22 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. Supported by the policy of "stabilizing foreign trade", China's textile and apparel exports have withstood the huge impact of the epidemic and achieved growth for five consecutive months, directly driving the overall export growth of national goods trade by 1%, becoming an important factor in promoting the growth of national goods trade power.
Economic growth in 2021 is expected to be significantly better than that in 2020. The World Economic Cooperation Organization’s Global Economic Outlook report pointed out that under the influence of favorable factors such as vaccination, the global economy will grow by 4.2% in 2021, and the Chinese economy will grow at 8%. , China’s contribution to global economic growth will exceed one third. On February 1, the latest World Economic Outlook released by the IMF showed that in 2020, the global economy is expected to shrink by 3.5%, and the shrinkage rate is 0.9 percentage points lower than the previous forecast. This reflects that economic growth in the second half of 2020 is stronger than that in the second half of 2020. expected. The global economy is expected to grow by 5.5% and 4.2% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Among them, China's GDP growth rate in 2021 is expected to reach 8.1%. Good economic expectations will also be transmitted to the textile printing and dyeing industry chain and increase the expectations of industry chain companies for the growth of dye demand.
Second, the cost of raw materials has risen. Recently, the price of disperse dye intermediates has continued to rise. For example, the price of reductant including tax in January was 42,000 yuan/ton, and today’s price was 48,000 yuan/ton. Rising raw material costs will inevitably promote further increases in the ex-factory prices of disperse dyes, but the upper limit of dye prices is ultimately determined by the relationship between supply and demand.
Third, the inventory of dyes has decreased. The current inventory level of disperse dyes is the lowest in the last three years, and various companies are busy delivering goods, and products are delayed or even out of stock. Current deliveries are generally low-price orders in the early period. If the proportion of dealers in pending orders is too large, it will also bring some resistance to price increases.
Fourth, the operating pressure of disperse dye companies is huge. Domestic large-scale disperse dye manufacturers will see a significant decline in their performance in 2020, which will prompt disperse dye corporate decision makers to increase product sales prices and promote corporate performance growth, especially when the company's products are in short supply.