Partial weekly drop of 600! Production cuts continue! The 20,000 mark is just around the corner, will silicones usher in the "three bottoms"? Trend analysis

Last week, the overall silicone market was stable and small, but the mentality of each monomer factory was divided. The middle and lower reaches mainly focused on digesting inventory, and the phased replenishment was temporarily ended, and the rise without demand was like a hooligan. On Thursday, individual monomer factories in Shandong Unable to hold back, it was the first to fall back, from a daily increase of 200 to a daily drop of 200, and a total of 600 drops for three consecutive days. As of July 17, the DMC quotation was lowered to 20,200 yuan/ton, which is another tentacle from the 20,000 mark. accessible. The mainstream monomer factory in Zhejiang remained unchanged at 21,000 yuan/ton. Other monomer factories will continue to wait and see.

The new week started. As a "pioneering pioneer", some individual factories in Shandong made a small drop to test the downstream stocking demand, but the terminal demand was not strong, and it bottomed out one after another—rebounded—and then bottomed out again. Downstream expectations for each wave of bottoming deepened. Taking the first round of 20,000 rebound as the base point, the second round of DMC fell to 19,000 yuan / ton. If the third round starts this week, at which point will it bottom and rebound?

107 rubber market: Last week, the 107 rubber market showed a weak and stable tug-of-war trend. Although the overall price was stable, the supply and demand stalemate was strong, and the transaction of new orders was not good. The current mainstream price of 107 rubber is 21000-21500 yuan / ton. Supply side: The supply of 107 rubber enterprises is sufficient, and the inventory is on the rise. Although the 107 rubber was closed on the evening of the 7th, stimulated by the news, the market was closed, which stimulated the short-term replenishment of downstream enterprises. However, there is a lack of continuous downstream purchases, and there is no obvious sign of improvement in the terminal market, so it is bad for the 107 rubber market. At present, some DMCs have fallen first, and the 107 rubber is likely to return to the downward channel.

From the perspective of demand, the current stimulus to the real estate policy continues, but the news of the market explosion is endless. The June national housing index released on July 15 is still sluggish. Even if the purchase restrictions have been lifted in many places since May To a significant improvement, and then produced more pessimistic expectations. However, in the second half of the year, domestic silicone sealants are expected to be repaired and improved. First of all, the current prevention and control of yiqing tends to be relaxed, the real estate policy is still being stimulated, and the macroeconomic bullish effect on the industrial chain may gradually strengthen.

Returning to the fundamentals, the supply of 107 rubber is relatively abundant, and more bullish drivers rely on the demand side, such as the resumption of projects in various places and the increase in photovoltaic installation rates. In the short term, the 107 rubber market is dominated by the overall weak and volatile trend.

Silicone oil market: Last week, the domestic silicone oil market maintained stable operation, the raw material support was weak, and the shipment of silicone oil was blocked again. The current price of the silicone oil market was stable at 25,000-26,000 yuan/ton. After a short-term buy-and-buy mentality, some manufacturers have received more orders and placed orders until the end of the month. However, the raw material DMC resumed the decline, the market feared that the sentiment would spread, and the silicone oil transaction was stalemate. Foreign brand silicone oil: foreign manufacturers maintain a high operating rate and supply is relatively sufficient. Agents are facing a cold domestic market. Although the quotation is stable, there is more room for negotiation. At present, the agent's quotation range is 27,000-28,000 yuan / ton, with partial transactions It is the same as the domestic silicon oil price.

On the demand side, affected by the recent general environment, the consumer side is squeezed upwards layer by layer. Whether it is psychological transmission or order transmission, the domestic trade shipments of silicone oil have been relatively reduced since the middle of the year. The orders of foreign trade enterprises are also average, but the number of inquiries has increased compared with the previous period, and export orders may be expected to increase in the future.

In the short term, the cost support has begun to weaken, the downstream purchase intention is not good, and the overall production and sales pace of the silicone oil market has slowed down. It is expected that the short-term silicone oil market will stabilize and decline.

Cracking material market: Last week, the price of new materials was partially reduced. After the rise of waste silica gel recyclers was invalid at the beginning of the week, they fell slightly. At present, the quotation of burrs has dropped to 8500~8800 yuan / ton. The cracking material enterprises are helpless. The price of cracking material DMC remained at 18,500~19,500 yuan/ton excluding tax last week. The price has no advantage at all, and it is mostly based on spot trading of scattered orders.

Judging from the current predicament of cracking materials, the biggest problem is still the lack of orders from product factories. Even if the old cracking materials factories basically purchase hydrolyzed materials and low molecular weights, the demand for waste silica gel continues to decline, but the product factories have few orders and finished products. The profit is meager, and the waste silica gel carries profit points, so it is unwilling to deal with it at a low price. At the same time, waste silica recyclers compete without rules, and the hype environment for several years has breeded everyone. Everyone always wants to eat a fat man in one breath. As long as the new material fluctuates, they will take the opportunity to hype. But receiving in large quantities. In the short term, the sluggish atmosphere in the cracking material market is difficult to ease. In the medium and long term, the price advantage of cracking materials can only be realized when the orders for silicon products increase significantly.

Raw rubber market: The raw rubber market was calm last week, and the mainstream quotation was stable at 21,200-21,500 yuan/ton. Due to the cold trading of new orders, the rebound market led by the news was hindered, and the raw rubber factory rose to this hastily end. In the follow-up, with the impact of the partial fall in DMC prices, rubber compounding companies have expected a large price reduction for raw rubber. Except for some on-demand purchases, most companies have reduced inquiries, mostly on the sidelines. The last round of bottom-out orders from raw rubber companies are still shipping. Now the market is bearish again and demand is weak. Some traders and even compound rubber manufacturers are making profits in advance. Is it good or not? Raw rubber enterprises are in a dilemma. In the short term, the raw rubber market will continue to run weakly, and there is still room for a moderate fall in prices.