The impact of power rationing and production shutdown on us

Looking back at the historical power curtailment situation, since 2003, China has had at least five large-scale “power curtailment”. The impact of “power curtailment” on the economy can generally be summarized into two aspects: on the one hand, continuous “power curtailment” directly Drag down industrial production. Taking the large-scale “power curtailment” in 2010 as an example, Zhejiang and Hebei, where the “power curtailment” is the most serious, experienced a year-on-year growth rate of 3.6 and 5.6 percentage points respectively in the month-on-year growth of industrial added value. On the other hand, with the spread of “power curtailment”, industrial products such as calcium carbide and coal are facing pressure from rising prices.

As a high-energy-consuming industry, chemical fiber companies and markets are concentrated in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions where power shortages are most severe. Therefore, they are extremely sensitive to the fierce peak power consumption pressure this year. Although power cuts in East China have been common in the past few years, and the shortage of power supply this summer has long been heard, it is understood that this year's electrical power still far exceeds the company's expectations. After all, this year and last year The situation can’t be the same. Faced with such a large electrical pressure, whether the chemical fiber industry can withstand it has become a topic of concern to the industry.

Different upstream and downstream influences

The impact of power shortage on the chemical fiber industry is obvious, but from the perspective of upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, the impact is different. The impact of power curtailment on the downstream is greater than that on the upstream, that is to say, the impact on the demand side is greater than the supply side.

One of the reasons is that due to the strong continuity of the production of chemical fiber upstream devices, the impact of power rationing on it is very prominent, so local governments and relevant departments have relatively small power rationing on these devices. At the same time, the operating load of most chemical or chemical fiber plants cannot be reduced indefinitely, which has prompted many companies to reduce the power consumption of post-processing to ensure the power consumption of upstream production, so the lack of electricity will not cause particularly obvious pain in upstream production. .

The second reason is that many upstream companies are large-scale local companies or industry-leading companies, and they generally enjoy the policy of “grasping the big and letting go of the small” implemented by the local government and power supply department in terms of electricity consumption. According to relevant departments, in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, chemical fiber enterprises are relatively concentrated, and most of them are small and medium-sized enterprises. The local government cannot take care of everything in terms of electricity consumption. In principle, it protects key enterprises.

The third reason is that more than half of the domestic chemical fiber raw materials currently rely on imports, and the supply of imported raw materials is relatively less affected by domestic power restrictions.

The fourth reason is that China is a major exporter of textiles, and a considerable part of chemical fiber products are used to produce export textiles. When the power supply is not guaranteed, it will inevitably have a greater impact on weaving enterprises' orders.