In September, the production reduction operation will be launched again! Silicone held steady for 5 days! This week's decline deepens VS steady bottom? Trend analysis

Entering September, the imaginary peak season did not arrive as scheduled. The domestic silicone market continued to decline at the end of August. Last week, metal silicon also went down, 421# fell to about 20,000, the cost side weakened, and the demand was not stimulated in place. The negative situation of many parties makes it difficult for the market to "turn things around". As of press time, the mainstream domestic DMC quotation was 18800-19800 yuan / ton, down 1.03% within the week.

Judging from the quotations of various monomer factories, it is quite a scene of thunder, heavy rain, and little rain. It has been stable for five days. In the absence of large downstream stocking needs, the rise and fall of monomer factories are more cautious, and local installations have also stopped production. Downgrade. However, stability is not the characteristic of silicone. In this round of supply and demand, demand still prevails. It is not ruled out that some manufacturers will have another wave of flash-down operations, and those who need to stock up or enter at a low price.

107 rubber market: 107 rubber continued to be upside down last week, but the market has bottomed out and stabilized. As of September 4, the mainstream quotation of 107 rubber was 19300-19600 yuan / ton, a weekly decrease of 4.19%. Supply side: At the beginning of the week, the leading factory 107 rubber and its DMC kept upside down at 500 yuan/ton. Other 107 rubber factories also followed the upside-down pattern due to the pressure of shipment. The inversion rate of large orders is close to 800 yuan / ton. It can be foreseen that the individual factories will sell 107 rubber stocks at low prices, and after the pressure of exchanging price for quantity is released, the upside down situation will also end. This week, 107 plastic may be able to stabilize, because the cost side is still negative, and the price is difficult to make a big splash.

From the demand side, the relief of high temperature is conducive to outdoor construction, but the house leaks happen overnight rain, the recent outbreak of health incidents, the reduction of outdoor construction in many areas, and the limited transportation. In August, the market briefly recovered and then fell, causing some silicone rubber factories to face losses again. Therefore, even if the 107 rubber was upside down last week, the mentality of the manufacturers was bearish, and most of them just kept stocking up.

On the whole, the fundamentals of 107 rubber maintain the trend of strong supply and weak demand, but the upside-down pattern also releases a certain downside risk of 107 rubber, which is conducive to the stable operation of 107 rubber. It is expected to fall first and then stabilize in the short term.

Silicone oil market: Last week, the domestic methyl silicone oil fell as a whole. As of September 4, the conventional viscosity methyl silicone oil was quoted at 23,000-24,000 yuan / ton, a weekly decline of 3.09%. Supply side: As DMC continues to weaken, domestic silicone oil also fell silently. On the one hand, the stock of foreign-owned silicone oil and domestic silicone oil is full, and the supply side continues to loose; Some foreign brands of silicone oil have obvious advantages in direct selling price, which has formed a great suppression situation for domestic silicone oil. Last week, the bulk orders of foreign brand silicone oil agents were 24,500-25,500 yuan / ton, a weekly decrease of 3.85%.

In addition, methyl silicone oil is affected by the high level of silicone ether. Although it still maintains a relatively high price with DMC, it is already on the edge of the cost line. The factory maintains cautious procurement and shipment, and the decline is limited.

On the demand side, the demand for textiles, daily chemicals, and silica gel continued to be weak, the downstream peak season production resumption was slow, the overall demand for silicone oil was general, the trading atmosphere in the market was deserted, and the pressure on manufacturers to accumulate warehouses was increasing. Export: Since entering the third quarter, export orders have continued to decline, and silicone oil has also entered a bidding atmosphere in foreign markets. Therefore, foreign trade companies have escalated their price reduction efforts when facing domestic purchases.

On the whole, silicone ether is under high pressure, and it is difficult for silicone oil manufacturers to make concessions. However, the downstream situation is weak and weak, manufacturers are under great pressure on shipments, and the contradiction between supply and demand continues. The silicone oil market has entered a stalemate, and some manufacturers continue to reduce production.

Cracking material market: new materials fell slightly, waste silica recyclers weakened steadily, and the price of burrs was lowered to 7500~7800 yuan / ton. The cracking material enterprises were completely "flattened and rotten". After all, this little drop is not enough. In order to make up for the upside-down space with new materials, the current price of cracking material DMC is 17500~18000 yuan / ton (excluding tax). Everyone should reduce production. The old cracking material factories have stopped the production of cracking materials in a large area and switched to other materials such as new materials or low molecular weight. The new cracking materials are also declining. After nearly a year of loss experience, Liming still In the long run, in order to stabilize yourself from being shuffled out, purchasing waste silicone burrs is no longer radical.

In the future, the transaction volume of waste silica gel will gradually decline, and the speculation will not continue. However, cracking material companies can only watch while walking, waiting for the opportunity to fully recover the demand for silicon products, but before that, make sure that they do not become the first cannon fodder.