Multi-country order shortage is coming! Orders plummeted!

Recently, according to multiple media reports:

According to the industry, there are doubts about "order shortage" from mainland China to Vietnam and India.

According to the Ho Chi Minh City Business Association of Vietnam, orders for industries such as electronics, textiles, and footwear have been greatly impacted by the slowdown in orders from Europe and the United States. India's apparel and home textiles export orders also fell by 20% to 40%, not only delaying previous orders, but even reducing orders for the next season.

19,000 people take unpaid leave

According to Taiwan's "Economic Daily", the economic affairs department of the Taiwan authorities announced on the same day that the order value in July was 54.26 billion US dollars, a decrease of 1.9% compared with the same period last year. Among them, orders from Taiwan, China and Hong Kong, China decreased by 22.6% year-on-year, which has been declining year-on-year for four consecutive months.

As for the recent reports that a large factory plans to arrange compensatory leave and special leave for workers due to the reduction in orders, Wang Jinrong said that according to the Labor Standards Law, special leave should be scheduled by the workers. Taking special leave has clearly violated the Labor Standards Act, and can be fined 20,000 yuan to 1 million yuan.

Taiwan's "Ministry of Labor" announced the latest statistics on work reduction and rest (unpaid leave) on the 24th. The number of people who implemented this period was 19,750, an increase of 718 compared with the previous period. Implementation, there are also two manufacturing companies due to the reduction of foreign orders to apply for new implementation.

The recession alarm bell is ringing again!

U.S. durable goods orders unexpectedly increased by 0 in July

According to The Wall Street Journal:

Following the collapse of macroeconomic indicators such as PMI, another sign of deterioration in the US economy emerged.

Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce on Wednesday showed that durable goods orders in July increased by 0% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.8%, and the month-on-month growth rate in June was 2% (revised to 2.2%). Month up.

Durable goods orders are likely to weaken in the coming months due to rising borrowing costs and increased uncertainty about the U.S. economic outlook.

Data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. Markit manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs continued to hit new lows in more than two years in August, and the economy deteriorated significantly.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may continue to hawk at the upcoming Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks to show his determination to fight inflation.

In addition, after Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari released the hawk, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points in September has risen to nearly 60%.

Global merchandise trade growth slows in second quarter

The World Trade Organization said in a new report:

Global merchandise trade continued to grow in the second quarter (Q2) of 2022, but at a slower pace than in the first quarter and is likely to remain weak in the second half of the year. The reason is that the drag from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is offset by growth in China.

The WTO expects global trade in goods to grow by 3.0% in 2022. However, due to factors such as the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, rising inflationary pressures, and expected tightening policies in advanced economies, uncertainty has increased.

European business activity is in the midst of two straight months of contraction. According to the latest data from S&P Global, the euro zone composite PMI, which measures manufacturing and service sector activity, fell to 49.2 in August, an 18-month low. Manufacturing output fell for a third straight month, with service output just one step away from shrinking. Both industries reported a drop in new orders.

S&P Global said customers were more hesitant to place orders, leading to a sharp drop in new orders. At the same time factories reported an increase in inventories as products were not sold. S&P global economist Andrew Harker said the excess inventory indicated "little prospects" for a near-term improvement in manufacturing production.