2021 is a year of macro inflation and policy guidance. In the first half of the year, macro inflation will dominate, and the policy impact will be more prominent in the second half of the year. Under the background of the country’s 14th Five-Year "Carbon Peak-Carbon Neutrality", the energy consumption dual control policy The sudden attack made the entire industry uneasy.
It is reported that the second round of the fourth batch of environmental protection inspectors started on August 26 on the environmental protection inspections of the two major central enterprises in five provinces including Shandong and Guangdong. They have all settled in and launched a series of environmental protection rectifications. Textile companies have always been representatives of "high energy consumption". Under the "dual control" policy and environmental supervision, many production companies have been affected. According to incomplete statistics, dozens of textile and chemical fiber clusters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, including Wujiang Shengze, Nantong, Changzhou, Jiangyin, Taicang and Shaoxing Keqiao, have carried out various levels of dual-control suspension and production restrictions.
The Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are China's main polyester producing areas. As can be seen from the figure below, the production capacity of polyester in the two provinces of Zhejiang and Jiangsu accounts for about 77% of the total production capacity of polyester in the country.
Zhejiang is the largest production and marketing province, while Zhejiang is mainly concentrated in Huzhou, Xiaoshao, and Ningbo, where the polyester industry is relatively concentrated.
At present, the polyester industry chain in the provinces with limited production suspension caused by the "dual control" has a high degree of concentration. PTA production capacity accounts for 93% of national production capacity, MEG production capacity accounts for 70%, and polyester production capacity accounts for 94%. The downstream spinning and weaving are mainly distributed in Fujian, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other places. These industries have high energy consumption, and the corresponding provinces’ "dual control" policy is in the first-level early warning, so the actual terminal will be more affected.
From the current point of view, for the polyester industry chain with dual control, no PX and PTA devices have been affected by the dual control to reduce or stop production, but it is not ruled out that the following devices will be affected. The finished product end is more affected by the "dual control" due to the higher overall energy consumption intensity. From the distribution point of view, the polyester production capacity of the first-level warning provinces is 29.11 million tons, and the second-level warning provinces have a polyester production capacity of 32.26 million tons. The overall proportion of the production capacity of the country has reached 94% of the country.
Since the specific impact of the "dual control" policy on each industry is unpredictable, we can only analyze the possible impact of the dual control from the probability and order of strength. Therefore, the above analysis results can be summarized as follows:
First-level early warning provinces: PTA is expected to be affected by 13 million tons (small-scale installations), MEG is expected to be affected by 1.65 million tons (coal-based), and 29.11 million tons of polyester. Structurally speaking, the most vulnerable part of the industrial chain is Polyester, followed by MEG, and finally PTA; and from the perspective of capacity comparison, the demand side is more affected than the supply side.
First/second warning provinces: PTA is expected to be affected by 18 million tons (small-scale installations), MEG is expected to be affected by 4 million tons, and polyester is expected to be affected by 61 million tons. The conclusion remains basically unchanged.