Oversold, closed, pulled up! Another round of silicone rebounds! Trend analysis

In early August, the silicone market was oversold, closed, and pulled up! The trend is as we expected, it first declined and then rose. First of all, after the two major players in Shandong and Zhejiang fell below 19,000 yuan/ton, the lowest price of DMC was 18,800 yuan/ton, and the bottom window appeared in stages. Driven by fear of rising, the main manufacturers in Zhejiang have closed their stocks and then increased. Driven by the fear of rising, the need for stocking and batch opening of warehouses will increase at the same time, which will bring periodic benefits to the market. Shandong monomer factory rebounded 100 on Friday, and DMC reported 19,000 yuan / ton. Since then, the quotations of the two monomer plants have remained flat.

We can foresee the repair rebound, but how long it will last after the rebound, everyone is still worried about the terminal demand and the operating rate of individual units. Therefore, for the downstream that did not buy the bottom in time, there are not many expectations for halfway traffic this week. It can be seen that after a wave of periodic stocking, the transaction of new orders is flat again, but last week's bottom-hunting orders can bring a certain price stability support to the individual factories.

107 rubber market: Last week, the domestic 107 rubber fell weakly as a whole. As of August 5, the 107 rubber market offers 19600-20000 yuan / ton, a weekly decline of 2.02%. In terms of supply, 107 rubber continued to be abundant, and leading manufacturers continued to hold steady at the beginning of the week. In order to stimulate orders, 107 rubber fell to a minimum of 19,300 yuan / ton on Thursday. The downstream bottom-hunting and heavy volume, 107 rubber rebounded at a low level. As for other 107 rubber companies, they were squeezed by the leading low-priced supply in the early stage, and their profits were under pressure and took the initiative to reduce their burdens. At present, the inventory pressure is limited.

In the short term, DMC rebounded to support, just-needed orders need to be delivered urgently, in addition to the impact of profit damage, the quotations of 107 rubber companies this week are expected to rise slightly.

From the perspective of demand, the real estate market is in a severe situation, and local rescue policies are still increasing. Recently, the establishment and operation plan of the Zhengzhou Real Estate Bailout Special Fund has been released, and the scale is tentatively set at 10 billion yuan. Silicone rubber companies that have been suppressed for more than half a year have not only placed hopes on the traditional peak season of "Golden Nine Silver Ten", but also worried that the peak season will not come as scheduled, so their mentality is relatively subtle.

On the whole, the 107 rubber market has bottomed out and rebounded, just-demanded orders have increased, and the market's low-priced supply has improved. At the beginning of the month, the demand side is still cautious about chasing the rise. If there are signs of recovery in the peak season, there may be some help expected on the demand side in late August.

Silicone oil market: The domestic silicone oil market was weak and stable last week. At the beginning of the week, because the mainstream quotations remained unchanged, the transaction of silicone oil was stalemate, and traders reduced their inventories at low prices. On Thursday, the leading monomer factories oversold and rebounded. Some silicone oil factories took advantage of the low stock prices and adjusted their quotations to receive orders. As of August 5, the mainstream price of silicone oil was 24,000-24,500 yuan / ton. Foreign brand silicone oil: In August, the ex-factory price of foreign silicone oil companies was lowered, and the imported goods in the early stage gradually arrived in Hong Kong. The increase in supply and the decline in domestic demand caused foreign silicone oil to compete with domestic silicone oil. At present, foreign silicone oil agents offer 26,000-27,000 yuan/ton, and there is a lot of room for profit from FCL transactions.

On the demand side, most downstream industries are currently in the off-season, and the high-temperature electricity consumption in the south is at its peak. Some textile enterprises in Zhejiang have received notices of power curtailment, which has intensified the pressure on the demand side. However, stimulated by the low price, the downstream entered the market one after another to stock up, and some large silicone rubber companies stocked up until the end of the month. In terms of export orders, the performance was mediocre, and there was no major change. Overall, the order atmosphere has improved slightly, but not by much.

Looking at the market outlook, with the support of DMC's slow recovery, the willingness of silicone oil to maintain stability is strong, but the downstream inventory consumption is slow. Under the circumstance that foreign silicone oil makes profits, it cannot be ruled out that domestic silicone oil may be stable and weaken.